How can employment and unemployment rise at the same time




















People who have not looked for work in the past four weeks are not included in this measure. It is important to keep in mind that the rate measures the percent of unemployed job seekers in the labor force—the sum of employed and unemployed persons—and not the entire population.

There are several reasons the unemployment rate rises or falls. Although a clear reason is a change in the number of job seekers, the unemployment rate may also be affected by a change in the size of the labor force. When workers become discouraged and stop looking for employment, they leave the labor force. It is common in economic downturns for the labor force to decrease or increase more slowly than usual in size as many give up on finding work and are therefore no longer counted as officially unemployed.

Conversely, during an economic recovery, high unemployment rates can persist despite an increase in jobs as more workers begin looking for work and re-enter the labor market. Underemployment includes three groups of people: unemployed workers who are actively looking for work; involuntarily part-time workers who want full-time work but have had to settle for part-time hours; and so-called marginally-attached workers who want and are available to work, but have given up actively looking.

Together, these three groups provide a more comprehensive measure of slack in the labor market. This measure does not include people who have had to settle for employment below their skill or experience level, such as the mechanical engineer who is driving a cab.

There is currently no data that track this form of underemployment. Compared to other labor force statistics, the underemployment rate is relatively new; the census only began to track underemployment as it is currently measured in The lack of historical data can make it difficult to put current numbers in context with past labor market performance.

The Employment-to-Population Ratio is a useful, broad-brush measure. It simply shows the number of people currently employed as a share of the total working-age population, which is the number of civilian, non-institutionalized persons, age 16 and over. This measure does not typically change dramatically from month to month, but even minor changes help identify which segments of the population are experiencing the most job loss or gain.

This ratio also compliments the unemployment rate in assessing the health of the labor market. The unemployment rate has shortcomings that the employment-to-population ratio does not. As mentioned above, the unemployment rate is affected by the size of the labor force. As the labor market falters, the unemployment rate may actually fall if workers give up looking for work, and as the labor market is recovering, unemployment can rise because more people are entering the labor force as they start to look for work again.

The employment-to-population ratio, because it is unaffected by voluntary changes in labor force participation, is a useful indicator of current labor market conditions. Lows in the employment-to- population ratio correspond with economic downturns. The employment-to-population ratio holds clear and discernible implications for the labor market, both among and between segments of the population. On any given date, a survey finds a fairly long average duration for the unemployed, because of the people with long spells.

For example, suppose that each week one person becomes unemployed for one week, so there are fifty-two such short unemployment spells during the year. And suppose that there are four people who are unemployed all year, so there are four long unemployment spells during the year.

In any given week five people are unemployed: one unemployed person has a spell of one week, while four have spells of a year. So most spells have a short duration fifty-two short spells compared to four long spells , but most people who are unemployed at a given time are experiencing spells with long duration one short spell compared to four long spells.

Frictional unemployment arises as workers and firms search to find matches. A certain amount of frictional unemployment is necessary, because it is not always possible to find the right match right away. For example, an unemployed banker may not want to take a job flipping hamburgers if he or she cannot find another banking job right away, because the match would be very poor. By remaining unemployed and continuing to search for a more suitable job, the banker is likely to make a better match.

That will be better both for the banker since the salary is likely to be higher and for society as a whole since the better match means greater productivity in the economy. Structural unemployment occurs when people suffer long spells of unemployment or are chronically unemployed with many spells of unemployment. Structural unemployment arises when the number of potential workers with low skill levels exceeds the number of jobs requiring low skill levels, or when the economy undergoes structural change, when workers who lose their jobs in shrinking industries may have difficulty finding new jobs.

The natural rate of unemployment is the rate of unemployment that prevails when output and employment are at their full-employment levels. The natural rate of unemployment is equal to the amount of frictional unemployment plus structural unemployment.

Cyclical unemployment is the difference between the actual rate of unemployment and the natural rate of unemployment. When cyclical unemployment is negative, output and employment exceed their full-employment levels. It is written either in terms of the levels of output and unemployment, as in Eq.

Numerical Problems 1. The result is:. The result is the same rounded. The slope of the production function line is 0. There is no diminishing marginal productivity of capital in this case, because the MPK is the same regardless of the level of K.

This can be seen in Figure 3. Figure 3. When N is , Y is So the MPN for raising N from to is This shows diminishing marginal productivity of labor because the MPN is falling as N increases. In Figure 3. This graph is different from a labor demand curve because a labor demand curve shows the relationship between labor demand and the real wage.

With five workers, output is 30 widgets, compared to 8 widgets in part a when the firm hired only one worker. The MRPN is the same as it was in part d when the price doubled. So labor demand is the same as it was in part d.

But the output produced by five workers now doubles to 60 widgets. These two points are plotted as line NDa in Figure 3. These two points are plotted as line NDb in Figure 3. Setting labor supply equal to labor demand gives In February, the unemployment rate rose 0. This is the highest figure in five years after reaching 4.

Normally, when the employment rate rises while the number of employees increase, the unemployment rate drops. However, strangely enough, the employment rate and unemployment rate are increasing at the same time in the current economy.

The employment and unemployment rates started to increase at the same time last year, with the rates rising 0.



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